Subscription Revenue Forecast System

Oak Lawn Marketing embarked on a new business venture, partnering with TimeLife Australia and bareMinerals to introduce subscription products for CD/DVD sets and cosmetics, respectively, to Japanese consumers. The traditional direct marketing approach was to sell a single high-price product, which resulted in immediate profit. However, the subscription model would initially be unprofitable as this approach relied on recurring low-price sales over a long period of time. Stakeholders within the company were apprehensive about this new venture.

Sven developed models for this new line of business and actively advocated for it within the company to overcome resistance to the initially unprofitable business. He also designed an information system that applied statistical models to calculate the lifetime value of subscribers and integrated it with media performance metrics to project the expected ROI from advertising efforts, enabling apples-to-apples comparison between one-time sales and subscription sales.

Sven’s models and systems quickly demonstrated their value, gaining company confidence as actual results aligned with projections. By the end of the year, the subscription business accounted for 30% of the company’s advertising budget and generated $60 million in annual revenue.

EXPERTISE

• Financial planning

• Financial modeling

• Data analysis

• Business analysis

• Project management

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